Why is coffee getting more expensive?

Coffee is getting more expensive due to a combination of failed harvests in coffee-producing countries, stricter European legislation, logistical problems and geopolitical tensions. The increasing global demand also plays a big role. This leads to higher purchase prices, which eventually affect the price you pay for your coffee. We explain exactly how this works, who negotiates the price and what you as a consumer or business can do to still buy coffee beans at a fair price.

Coffee price rising: what’s going on?

The coffee price has been rising for months and that’s no coincidence. Several factors have a worldwide impact on the market. For example, major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam are facing disappointing harvests due to extreme weather conditions. Fewer coffee beans simply means less supply and that drives the price up.

Recently it was announced that the parent company of Douwe Egberts has to raise coffee prices again. This can be between 15 and 25%. Price negotiations between JDE Peet's and supermarkets are once again very tough. Earlier this year, shelves at Albert Heijn, Jumbo and Plus were empty and they didn’t sell Douwe Egberts coffee. Eventually, supermarkets agreed to a 20% increase. (source: NOS)

In addition, stricter European legislation is coming, such as the EUDR (European Deforestation Regulation), which requires coffee companies to prove their beans do not contribute to deforestation. This causes extra costs and administrative pressure on suppliers, who pass these costs on.

And then there’s the role of geopolitical uncertainty and market speculation. Traders anticipate possible shortages, which adds extra price pressure. Add to that the growing global demand for coffee and you understand why coffee today is literally and figuratively worth its weight in gold.

What is the ICO Coffee Market Report?

The ICO Coffee Market Report is a monthly publication by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the global authority on coffee. In this report, the ICO analyses the global coffee market using current figures, price developments, export data and market trends.

The report includes:

• The average monthly coffee price (I-CIP) in US cents per pound.
• Comparisons between different coffee types (such as Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals and Robustas).
• Export figures by region and coffee type.
• Factors influencing the price, such as climate, geopolitics and logistics.
• Important market movements, like stock levels on futures markets in London and New York.

For coffee professionals, buyers and enthusiasts, this report is a valuable resource to understand why the price of their cup of coffee fluctuates.

Key insights from the report (May 2025)

1. Price movements:

• The average global coffee price (I-CIP) in May 2025 was 334.41 US cents per lb, a slight decrease of 0.4% compared to April.
• Despite this slight drop, the price is 60.5% higher than in May 2024.
• Prices per type:
  • Colombian Milds: 395.59 US cents/lb (+0.4%)
  • Other Milds: 397.84 US cents/lb (+1.3%)
  • Brazilian Naturals: 380.02 US cents/lb (+0.5%)
  • Robustas: 237.76 US cents/lb (−3.5%)

2. Supply developments:

• Global export of green beans fell by 6.8% compared to April 2024.
• Especially Brazilian Naturals dropped sharply by 14.4% in export volume.
• The increased certified stocks in New York and London indicate a slight improvement in availability, which may have temporarily slowed the rise.

3. Important market influences:

• The market is currently balanced between positive and negative forces.
  • Positive: strong consumer demand due to stable spending power (USA).
  • Negative: predicted larger harvests (USDA), lower chance of El Niño, and geopolitical easing (e.g. fewer Houthi attacks), all increasing supply.

Coffee price per month (ICO price in US ¢/lb)

Month	ICO price (US ¢/lb)	Month-on-month change
June 2024	226.83	—
July 2024	236.54	4.30%
August 2024	238.89	1.00%
September 2024	258.84	8.40%
October 2024	250.56	−3.2%
November 2024	270.72	8.10%
December 2024	299.61	10.70%
January 2025	310.12	3.50%
February 2025	354.32	14.20%
March 2025	347.85	−1.8%
April 2025	335.76	−3.5%
May 2025	334.41	−0.4%

Source: https://www.ico.org/documents/cy2024-25/cmr-0525-e.pdf

The price of coffee remains high, despite a slight drop in May, due to earlier scarcity, geopolitical risks, and speculation. The market is now cautiously correcting, partly thanks to better harvest prospects. Still, demand remains strong and prices unstable.

Who actually negotiates your cup of coffee?

Behind every cup of coffee you drink is a chain of negotiations. It starts with the coffee farmer, who sells their beans to cooperatives or traders. Then the roasters come into play: they buy huge amounts of green beans, often through long-term contracts arranged months or even years in advance.

Supermarkets and horeca wholesalers in turn negotiate with these roasters about volumes, prices and delivery terms. Especially in times of price fluctuations, negotiations are tough. Because if the world market price suddenly rises, no one in the chain wants to pay the full amount and tries to pass on the increase as much as possible.

For you as a consumer, this means that a price increase at the source only drips through later in the supermarket or horeca bill. But in the end it almost always happens, because no one wants to make a structural loss.

What does this mean for supermarkets and horeca?

For supermarkets and horeca businesses, a rising coffee price is more than just a purchasing problem. It affects their entire margin structure, because many chains work with long-term contracts, price increases are usually implemented with delay. But once existing stocks are used up and new purchasing rounds start, the blow still comes.

For supermarkets this often means higher shelf prices or shifting focus to own brands, where they have more control over margins. Some chains try to temporarily soften price increases to keep customers, but that can’t last forever.

Horeca businesses suffer even more. They often have less negotiating power and buy smaller volumes at higher prices. For coffee bars and restaurants this leads to tough choices: do you raise the price of a cappuccino by 20p, or accept less margin?

Both retail and horeca face difficult choices in a time when coffee is getting more expensive and consumers are increasingly critical about what they pay for their cuppa.

What can you do as a coffee lover or business?

Fortunately, there are ways you can smartly deal with rising coffee prices. Below we give tips for both consumers and businesses.

For consumers

• Buy in larger quantities: Many webshops, like Cafedujour.nl, offer bulk discounts or bundle deals.
  
  
• Switch to alternatives: Think of blends with a higher share of Robusta. These are often cheaper and surprisingly delicious.

For businesses

• Work with fixed suppliers who are transparent about their prices and delivery terms.
  
  
• Consider private label or bulk packaging, which can save costs on packaging and brand premiums.
  
  
• Keep an eye on your margin and don’t be afraid to adjust prices if needed — customers appreciate honesty, especially if you explain why.

With a smart strategy you can limit the impact of price increases and keep enjoying good coffee or keep making sure your guests can.

Café du Jour - Coffee bean sample packs

Whether the price rises or stabilises: good coffee remains something we all enjoy. But especially now the market is very dynamic, it’s a great moment to broaden your horizons. At Café du Jour you can discover new flavours through our sample packs. Ideal if you’re curious about other coffee blends or want to serve something new as a business.

Café du Jour started in 2015 out of pure passion for coffee, inspired by Italian coffee culture, but always with a Dutch, down-to-earth approach. No fuss, just very good coffee, fairly priced and with just that little extra attention.

With over 150 types of coffee in our range, our own roastery and a customer service that’s always ready to help, we have grown into the friendliest coffee supplier in the Netherlands. And you notice that, especially when you try our sample packs.

So what are you waiting for? Discover your new favourite coffee today with a sample pack from Café du Jour.